Trade vulnerability is becoming a growing issue for many industries in the American economy. Certain industries are at significant risk if tariffs are raised. This increased vulnerability could disrupt supply chains and impact the overall economy with an increase in payment delays or defaults.
A new study by The Kaplan Group found that several specific industries have a high-risk score. This score considers both the industry’s structural trade vulnerabilities and its exposure to specific countries.
Key Takeaways
- The textile impregnation industry exhibits a high risk with 58.25% exposure to Canada.
- China’s influence is concentrated in the energy sector, controlling 56.01% of the mineral fuels trade.
- Only a small fraction (approximately 2.8%) of the total trade value falls within the high-risk (score > 30) bracket
Export and Import Leaders
The top exporting industries are high-productivity sectors like Energy – Mineral Fuels & Oils, Textiles – Impregnated, and Copper Products. These sectors have strong export activity, contributing to the nation’s trade surplus. The top importing industries tend to have high domestic consumption and complex supply chains, making them more dependent on international markets.
Geographically, China is the main export destination for these sectors, reflecting its position as a key global market. For imports, Mexico is the leading source, highlighting the close economic ties and integrated supply chains between the US and its southern neighbor.
High Vulnerability Industries
As Dean Kaplan, President of The Kaplan Group explains: “With potential rising tariffs amplifying industry risk scores, companies must be vigilant—especially as higher tariff exposure can lead to increased payment defaults and longer receivables cycles in an already complex B2B environment.”
The textile-impregnated industry has the highest combined risk score of 37.57, driven by an exceptionally high exposure to key countries (99%). The Energy – Mineral Fuels & Oils sector follows with a risk score of 36.18 and significant exposure to Chinese markets (56.01%). Lead Products has a risk score of 33.07 and high exposure to Canadian markets (83.02%). This concentration of risk in specific geographic markets suggests these industries are particularly vulnerable to trade policy changes or market disruptions.
Risk Score by Industry
“Industries with high tariff exposure scores above 30 are more likely to experience severe payment delays or defaults if tariffs increase. This makes early warning systems and proactive credit management essential”, warns Dean Kaplan.
Concentration Risk
When looking at broader sector categories, Energy & Minerals have the highest average risk score of 26.26, managing $9.26 billion in trade value. The Metals sector follows with a risk score of 24.92 and a substantially larger trade value of $41.24 billion. Textiles maintains a comparable risk level at 24.89 but operates with a much smaller trade footprint of $1.59 billion. This analysis shows that risk levels don’t necessarily correlate with trade volume, meaning some smaller sectors might be disproportionately vulnerable to trade disruptions.
Of the total $328.97 billion in trade value, only $9.24 billion (2.8%) falls within the high-risk category (score > 30). However, this relatively small percentage masks significant variations in country-specific exposures. For example, the Copper Products industry, with $1.5 billion in trade value, shows an 85.48% exposure to Mexico, while Textiles – Impregnated has a more distributed but still concentrated exposure to Canada (58.25%) and Mexico (28.48%). This suggests that while the absolute value at risk might be manageable, the concentration of risk in specific trading relationships could amplify the impact of any disruptions.
For Dean Kaplan, the real concern isn’t just the direct impact of tariffs, “it’s the domino effect through the supply chain. When key industries show high-risk scores like we’re seeing, it could translate to a significant increase in payment delays or defaults across their entire supplier network.”
Methodology
The study’s findings are based on a composite risk model that integrates:
- Base Vulnerability Score: Derived from a weighted average of trade dependency, market concentration, partner concentration, and average trade value, normalized on a 0–100 scale.
- Country Exposure Scores: Calculated as the percentage exposure to key tariff-sensitive countries (China, Canada, and Mexico) relative to each industry’s total trade value.
- Combined Risk Score: A weighted sum of the base score and individual country exposures
Primary trade data was sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Foreign Trade Division and the U.S. International Trade Commission’s DataWeb platform, covering detailed import-export statistics from 2020 to 2025. The analysis excluded the generic “Other” category to focus on clearly defined industries. Visualizations and sector-level breakdowns further support the findings, providing actionable insights for policymakers and industry leaders.
Additional Resources:
- U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade
- U.S. International Trade Commission DataWeb: https://dataweb.usitc.gov
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): https://www.bea.gov
- World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS): https://wits.worldbank.org
- Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR): https://ustr.gov
These sources provide detailed statistics and analysis on trade flows, which can be very useful for further research and validation of the insights presented.
